Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Abstract:  Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.     

Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts

In seeking to determine whether climate change mitigation strategies are effective, researchers and policy-makers typically use energy consumption as an indicator. UK government data show that energy use amongst the public is rising, despite measures to encourage energy conservation. Yet, research to date has not explicitly asked which actions the public are taking with the express intention of mitigating climate change. Using Stern's classification of impact-oriented and intent-oriented behaviour research, the research described in this paper examines both actions taken ‘out of concern for climate change’ and energy conservation practices amongst the UK public. The findings show a clear divergence between actions prescribed by policy-makers (i.e. energy conservation) and those taken by the public to mitigate climate change (e.g., recycling). Furthermore, those who take action to conserve energy generally do so for reasons unconnected to the environment (e.g., to save money). Regression analyses highlight the distinct determinants of these two behavioural categories. These findings imply that surveys using energy reduction as an indicator of public response to climate change falsely assume that these can be equated; consequently, they will provide a distorted picture of behavioural response. Possible reasons for the asymmetry of intentions and impacts, and policy implications, are discussed.     

基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应

汉江流域未来的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响，将直接关系到南水北调工程和引江济汉工程的使用和效益。因此，分析研究汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点，可为地面调水、空中水资源开发、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护南水北调中线水源区的水资源提供科学依据。以1971～2000年为基准期，应用SWAT模型对汉江流域基准期内的逐月径流进行了模拟；在30 a基准期径流模拟的基础上,以全球变化背景下可能出现的25种不同气候变化模式为假设条件,模拟出各假设气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源状况，获得了各气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源相对于基准期的变化率，研究了汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应程度。结果表明：模型模拟精度高于评价标准（〖WTBX〗Ens>05，r2>06〖WTBZ〗），SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟；不同气候变化情景下,汉江流域径流变化较实际蒸散发的变化明显；降水对地表径流、基流的影响要大于气温；气温对实际蒸散发的影响大于降水;降水增加或气温降低都会导致径流增加,而降水增加或气温增加都会导致实际蒸散发的增加.     

Using social resilience and resource dependency to increase the effectiveness of marine conservation initiatives in Salum,Egypt

The social and economic ramifications of marine conservation strategies such as marine protected areas (MPAs) are important to consider prior to their implementation to ensure that they do not exceed the resilience of resource-users and that resource protection might be maximised through compliance and low resistance. This paper presents a framework in which the human dimensions can be more easily and usefully integrated into the design and delivery of conservation initiatives. The framework espouses quantifying (1) the level of dependency on the resource; (2) perceptions towards conservation initiatives; and (3) social resilience. The framework is applied in Salum, Egypt, which is the site of a prospective MPA.     

Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise Over Port Said Governorate, Egypt

An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China＇s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China＇s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, ＂China environment responsibility＂ that is the socalled ＂China environment threat＂ or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

上海地区洪涝致灾因子复合概率及未来变化分析

根据上海地区三阶段(1970-2004年,2020-2054年和2060-2094年)四要素(降水、吴淞口风速、太湖流域面雨量、吴淞口潮位)提取年极值时间序列,采用GEV分布首先开展"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子气候变化分析,结果显示:"雨洪风潮"各致灾因子年极值受气候变化影响均呈增加趋势;进而基于Copula联合函数中的三维变量的超越概率模型,计算"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种"三碰头"联合超越概率,结果表明:未来气候变化时段相对于历史基期,上海地区"雨洪风""雨洪潮"和"雨风潮"三种三碰头概率呈增加趋势。洪涝灾害致灾因子同时发生的复合概率增加,预示着气候变化影响下上海地区防汛排涝安全存在更大风险。